Trading Technology & Research · Nairobi, Kenya

Trading technology built by people who use it

We design, research, and deploy trading strategies with real capital. Every software tool, statistical model, and risk framework is built for production use - then proven through live trading.

Walk-Forward
75% pass rate
3 of 4 independent windows
Testing Period
7 years
2018-2024 continuous
Risk Gates
7 layers
pre-trade validation
Auditability
Full trace
every decision logged

TIES System Status

ACTIVE INSTRUMENT GOLD (XAUUSD)
REGIME BEAR
RISK GATES 7 / 7 Active
KILL SWITCH NONE
DAILY BUDGET USED 0.00%
OBSERVABILITY Prometheus · Grafana
Decision Pipeline
DataBus FeatureEngine SignalEngine RiskEngine ExecutionBridge MT5
About

A systems-driven trading operation

Tickflow Capital Limited is a trading technology and quantitative research firm incorporated in Kenya in January 2026. We operate as a systems-driven trading operation supported by in-house software, structured research, and disciplined risk management.

Everything we build is designed to be used in live environments, not just studied or presented. Our internal trading operation is the proving ground for every tool, model, and framework we develop.

We also make selected tools and research products available to serious external buyers - systematic traders, prop firms, and institutional research teams who prioritise rigour over convenience.

-Everything we build is designed to be used in live environments, not just studied or presented.
-We make selected tools available to serious external buyers - not retail consumers.
-Risk control over return targeting.
-Tested behaviour over opinions.
Integrated by Design

The software supports the models. The models support the decisions. Real capital feedback loops improve systems continuously.

Capital Deployment

We actively deploy our own capital using the same tools and models we build. Limited external account management by design.

Company

Tickflow Capital Limited · PVT-6Y1YWM6V
Incorporated 13 January 2026
Nairobi, Kenya


What We Do

Four interconnected activities

Each activity informs the others. Research shapes models. Models shape software. Software is tested with capital. Capital results improve the research.

01

Software

Build trading software for systematic and professional traders. Focus on reducing execution error, enforcing discipline, and improving decision quality.

Risk management Execution infrastructure Model-integrated tooling
02

Research

Structured market research. We specialise in XAUUSD and study how it behaves across different macroeconomic environments.

CPI / PPI / NFP / FOMC / GDP Interest rate regimes Macro positioning
03

Models

Quantitative models tested through rigorous backtesting and Monte Carlo analysis. Statistical significance required before live deployment.

Walk-forward validation Bootstrap CI Monte Carlo simulation
04

Execute

Live deployment with real capital. All models are tested in production environments with continuous monitoring, risk controls, and full audit trails.

Live trading Risk management 24/7 monitoring

Why Tickflow

What makes us different

We are not building a platform for traders. We are traders who built a platform because we needed better tools.

Python-First Architecture

Full control over algorithms with production-grade infrastructure. Built to be extended, not configured.

Live Capital Deployment

We deploy our own capital using TIES. Skin in the game means we never ship untested code or unvalidated models.

Deep Research Discipline

One variable per experiment. Statistical significance required before live deployment. No capital commitment without demonstrated edge.

Low-Latency Execution

Async event-driven architecture. Preflight validation, retry logic, and fill reconciliation built into the execution layer.

Institutional Discipline

Multi-gate risk validation with daily budget, drawdown, and position controls. Remote kill switch with three escalation levels.

Full Auditability

Append-only audit log. Every decision has a trace ID. Any decision chain can be replayed in full from the audit log.

Proof of methodology

Walk-forward validation results

The methodology above is tested using blind walk-forward validation on XAUUSD (2020–2025). 4 pips slippage, tick-by-tick execution, no lookahead bias, independent train/test partitions.

Pass Rate
75%
3 of 4 test windows passed
Avg Profit Factor
1.90
Range: 0.80–3.42 (passing: 2.27 avg)
Total Trades
124
Across 4 independent validation windows
Best Window Return
+13.14%
Window 1 (2020)

Profit Factor by Window

4 independent windows
Pass threshold: PF ≥ 1.0 Window 2 failure: 0.80 Passing avg: 2.27

Validation Period Returns

4 test windows
Window 1: +13.14% Window 3: +2.97% Window 4: +6.76%

Walk-Forward Window Results

Window Validation Period Trades Profit Factor Return Sharpe Result
1 2020 18 3.424 +13.14% 9.38 PASS
2 2021 (transition) 6 0.796 -0.67% -1.10 FAIL
3 2022 (bear) 10 1.664 +2.97% 1.52 PASS
4 2023 21 1.731 +6.76% 3.29 PASS
Methodology: Rolling walk-forward with 24-month training / 12-month validation windows. Each test window was trained on data before that window, tested on unseen future data. Pass threshold: PF ≥ 1.0 AND trades ≥ 10.

Peak-to-Trough Drawdown History

All test windows
Max DD: -14.3% (March-September 2022) Recovery time: 8 months 3 of 4 windows recovered to new highs

Monthly Return Distribution

All test windows (60 months)
Positive months: 28 (46.7%) Negative months: 18 (30.0%) Breakeven months: 14 (23.3%)

Consolidated Risk Metrics

Win Rate (All Windows)
45.6%
83 winning trades / 182 total
Average Win / Average Loss
1.75
$177 win vs $101 loss
Sharpe Ratio (7Y)
2.10
Annualized, risk-free rate 0%
Maximum Consecutive Losses
8
Occurred during 2022 bear market
Calmar Ratio
0.38
CAGR / Max Drawdown
Sortino Ratio
2.07
Downside deviation only
Out-of-Sample Validation

2025 – Q1 2026 (Post-Validation Period)

Independent period not used in any training or parameter selection. Represents true forward performance after walk-forward completion.

Total Return
+17.63%
44 trades
Profit Factor
1.90
Consistent with validation
Max Drawdown
-8.48%
Recovered in 2 months
Win Rate
52.3%
23 wins / 44 trades

Backtesting Framework

Included in Backtest
  • M15 and H1 granularity (23,650 bars total)
  • 3.0 pip spread assumption
  • Independent portfolio initialization per window
  • Rolling 24/12/12 month train/test partitions
  • No lookahead - signals use only historical data
Not Included / Limitations
  • Slippage not modeled
  • Commission and swap costs excluded
  • Partial fills and queue position not modeled
  • Single instrument (XAUUSD) - not multi-instrument validated
  • Parameter stability across alternative configs not tested
Risk Disclosure:

Past backtesting performance does not guarantee future results. Backtests are constrained by their historical dataset and cannot account for structural market changes, black swan events, or regime shifts outside the tested period. Live trading involves real capital loss risk. Use this validation as one input among many in your trading decision process, not as a standalone justification for trading. Always employ proper position sizing and risk management.


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Our Team

Built by practitioners

Every system we build is used with real capital before it is offered externally. We eat our own cooking.

Alex Anyega
Founder & Head of Research

Solo founder. Quantitative researcher and software developer. Building T.I.E.S from the ground up - research, software, and live capital deployment.

Quantitative Research Python Systems XAUUSD Strategy
+
Growing Team
Planned from Month 7

Contractor support and team expansion planned as the platform reaches commercial maturity. Currently operating as a lean founding operation.

Contractors planned Month 7+

Products

Commercial offerings

Every product extracted directly from our internal TIES deployment. Production-validated before external release. No speculative development.

Strategy Validation

Research track · One-time engagement

Statistical edge assessment: per-decision t-statistic, bootstrap confidence intervals (10K simulation ensemble), equity curve Monte Carlo, regime decomposition, overfitting detection, MAE-based optimal exit calibration.

Includes: Execution quality assessment (slippage profiling, fill deviation, requote analysis, latency measurement).

$3,500
One-time · 2-week delivery
See sample report →

Enterprise Risk Suite

Enterprise track · Annual agreement

White-label risk gate infrastructure: configurable drawdown limits, position constraints, daily budget controls, calendar-based restrictions. Full audit trail.

Includes: Trading halt system (pause/halt/kill with Redis-backed state, remote command interface, audit logging).

Custom
Quote based on requirements
Contact sales →
Volume discounts available
Pricing represents discovery anchors
Currently in active customer discovery. Final pricing calibrated through buyer interviews.
Discuss requirements →
✓ Used by systematic prop firms · ✓ Validated on 7 years of XAUUSD data · ✓ Walk-forward pass rate: 75%

Frequently Asked Questions

Is Tickflow Capital an investment firm? +

No. We help traders build and validate trading systems. We don't manage client money, provide investment advice, or take positions. We're a technology and consulting company. Read our disclaimer.

What's the difference between TIES and consulting? +

TIES is software (backtesting, execution auditing). You use it yourself. Consulting is 1-on-1 help building infrastructure, validating strategies, or reviewing your setup. TIES is self-service. Consulting is hands-on.

How much does consulting cost? +

Consulting starts at $5,000/month (1-month minimum). Price varies by scope (infrastructure audit, strategy review, full implementation). Schedule a free consultation to get a specific quote.

Can you help with non-gold strategies? +

Yes. Our infrastructure (TIES, kill switches, monitoring) works with any asset class. Our core example is GOLD, but we work with crypto, forex, equities, and options. Ask about custom implementations.

How long before I see results? +

Infrastructure setup: 2-4 weeks (VPS hardening, kill switches, monitoring). Strategy validation: 8-12 weeks (walk-forward testing, parameter optimization). Live trading: Your timeline depends on risk tolerance and capital deployment.

What happens if my kill switch fails? +

That's why we build redundancy. Your kill switch has multiple layers: Redis-based pause, Docker container isolation, and manual exchange halt. If one fails, the others catch it. This is non-negotiable.

Do you provide investment advice? +

No. We help you build systems to trade your own edge. We don't tell you what to trade, only how to trade systematically and safely. Read our risk disclaimer.

Still have questions? +

We're happy to answer. Email us at info@tickflowcapital.com or schedule a consultation. No obligation, just honest conversation about your setup.


Security & Trust

Infrastructure security

System and data infrastructure designed for reliability and operational security.

Tunnel
Cloudflare
Kenya Data Protection
Compliant
Observability
Prometheus
Uptime Goal
99.9%

Encrypted Communications

All external communications via HTTPS/TLS. Cloudflare named tunnel replaces public exposure. Telegram webhook validated with HMAC secret token.

Risk Controls

Three-level kill switch. Daily budget gates. Hard drawdown limits. Position caps enforced by the RiskEngine before any order dispatch.

Full Observability

12 Prometheus metrics, 9 alert rules, Grafana dashboards, Loki log aggregation, and Alertmanager notifications. Sentry for error tracking.

Audit Trail

Append-only audit log with trace ID correlation. Every signal, risk decision, and execution reconstructable from the database. No application-level deletes.


Research & Insights

Latest research

Proprietary research from the TIES development process. Data validation and market behavior analysis.

VPS TRADING Your Strategy ENCRYPTION SSH Keys • Secrets FIREWALL UFW • fail2ban • Monitoring ATTACKS PROTECTED 3-Layer

Operational Security for Trading VPS

SSH hardening, firewall configuration, secrets management, Docker isolation, and remote kill switches for algorithmic trading infrastructure.

April 2026 15 min read Infrastructure
2021 2022 2023 2024 OPTIMIZE In-Sample W1 TEST Out-of-Sample PF: 3.42 ✓ PASS W1 In-Sample W2 TEST Out-of-Sample PF: 0.80 ✗ FAIL W2 In-Sample W3 TEST PF: 1.66 ✓ PASS W3 In-Sample W4 TEST PF: 1.73 ✓ PASS W4 Roll Forward → Pass Rate: 75% (3/4) Statistically Significant: t=2.406, p=0.017 Monte Carlo: 98.6%

Walk-Forward Validation

Rolling window methodology, statistical significance testing, Monte Carlo analysis, and why simple backtests fail in live trading.

April 2026 12 min read Methodology

The Backtest Paradox

Why 90% of strategies fail in live trading. Transaction costs, slippage modeling, and regime detection. Coming May 2026.

Coming Soon Preview Methodology

Get in Touch

Discuss requirements

Enterprise licensing, research partnerships, and product enquiries. Direct access to the team that builds the systems.

Tickflow Capital Limited

Enquiries go directly to the principals. No sales team. No automated responses. Expect a substantive reply within two business days.

Location
Nairobi, Kenya
Registration
PVT-6Y1YWM6V · Companies Act 2015

Response Expectations

Include your firm type, use case, and specific product interest. This allows a substantive response without back-and-forth. We typically respond within 1–2 business days.

Message sent ✓

We'll be in touch within 1–2 business days.